Fooled-by-Randomness-Role-of-Chance-in-Markets-and-Life-PROPER1.pdf

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About the author
assim Nicholas Taleb is the founder of Empirica Capital LLC, a
crisis-hunting hedge fund operator, and a fellow at the Courant
Institute of Mathematical Sciences of New York University. He has held
a variety of derivative trading positions in New York and London and
worked as an independent floor trader in Chicago. Taleb was inducted
in February 2001 in the
Derivatives Strategy
Hall of Fame.
Taleb received an MBA from the Wharton School and a Ph.D. from
University Paris-Dauphine. He is the author of
Dynamic Hedging:
Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options
(Wiley, 1997).
BY
The Hidden Role of Chance
in the Markets and in Life
NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEE
eg
•
T E X E RE
New York • London
CONTENTS
Preface and Acknowledgments
Chapter Summaries
Prologue
Mosques in the Clouds
P A R T
I:
SOLON'S WARNING -
SKEWNESS,
ASYMMETRY,
INDUCTION
xiii
xvii
1
1
7
One: If You're So Rich Why Aren't You So Smart?
Nero Tulip
Hit by Lightning
Temporary Sanity
Modus Operandi
No Work Ethics
There Are Always Secrets
John the High-Yield Trader
An Overpaid Hick
11
11
11
12
14
16
17
17
19
viii
CONTENTS
The Red-Hot Summer
Serotonin and Randomness
Your Dentist Is Rich, Very Rich
Two: A Bizarre Accounting Method
Alternative History
Russian Roulette
An Even More Vicious Roulette
Smooth Peer Relations
Salvation Via Aeroflot
Solon Visits
Regine's
Night Club
George Will Is No Solon: On Counterintuitive Truths
Humiliated in Debates
Risk Managers
Three: A Mathematical Meditation on History
-
21
22
24
26
26
27
28
29
30
32
34
37
38
40
40
41
43
45
45
46
47
48
50
51
51
53
55
56
60
60
62
Europlayboy Mathematics
The Tools
Monte Carlo Mathematics
Fun in My Attic
Making History
Zorglubs Crowding the Attic
Denigration of History
The Stove Is Hot
My Solon
Distilled Thinking on Your PalmPilot
Breaking News
Shiller Redux
Gerontocracy
Philostratus in Monte Carlo: On the Difference Between Noise
and Information
Four: Randomness, Nonsense, and the Scientific Intellectual
Randomness and the Verb
Reverse Turing Test

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