zurkowski.pdf

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Fast track to Sustainable Mobility
Traffic Forecasting
Prospects for high speed rail in Poland
– forecasting demand
Andrzej
Żurkowski
CNTK – Railway Scientific & Technical Centre
Warsaw – Poland
17 – 19 March 2008
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Contents
Planning the Polish high speed line
Objectives of the modelling process
Modelling methodology
Model for forecasting demand
Modelling the modal split
Results and conclusions
17 – 19 March 2008
2
Planning the Polish high speed line - the “Y line” (1)
Master Plan for 2030 for Rail Transport in Poland
Drafted in December 2007 (by CNTK, E&Y, TOR)
Approved by the Polish government in February 2008
Approved by the European Commission in March 2008
Master Plan
for the railway
transport
in Poland
till 2030
Construction of HS lines in Poland: pre-feasibility study
Drawn up in November 2005 (by CNTK)
Wstępne studium
wykonalnośći
budowy linii
dużych prędkości
w Polsce
WARSZAWA, 2005
Inclusion of HS plans in the government’s programme
The government will seek a rapid conclusion to the feasibility
study into the construction of a high speed railway in Poland. We
hope to begin building the first line in 3-4 years maximum.
DONALD TUSK, Prime Minister
Address on 28.11.2007
17 – 19 March 2008
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Planning the Polish HS line - the “Y line” (2)
Vilinius
The route of the first HS line
Y
Warszawa –
Łódź
– Wrocław / Poznań
300 – 350 km/h
Wien
Conurbations of
To link
Warszawa 1.7 mln
Łódź
0.77 mln
Wrocław 0.64 mln
Poznań 0.57 mln
Regions of
Mazowsze 5.16 mln
Dolny
Śląsk
2.89 mln
Wielkopolska 3.37 mln
Journey times from Warszawa to:
Łódź
Wrocław
Poznań
2008 (IC)
01:50
04:50
02:47
with
Y
(HS)
00:45
01:40
01:35
17 – 19 March 2008
4
Objectives of the modelling process
Warszawa – Wrocław corridor: the reference situation
Number of connections per day
Okęcie
–
Strachowice
1. Forecasting transport
demand in the corridor
6 flights
in each direction
Warszawa
Warszawa Centr.
–
Wrocław Gł.
7 trains
in each direction
Wrocław
2. Estimating the modal
split
Warszawa Zach.
–
Wrocław Gł.
3 buses
in each direction
Warszawa
–
Wroclaw
2070
cars
17 – 19 March 2008
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