On Thin Ice - How Cutting Pollution Can Slow Warming and Save Lives.pdf

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On
Thin Ice
How Cutting Pollution Can Slow
Warming and Save Lives
October 2013
A Joint Report of
The World Bank
The International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
© 2013 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank and International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI)
The World Bank:
1818 H Street NW
Washington DC 20433
Telephone: 202-473-1000
Internet: www.worldbank.org
ICCI:
1496 Church Hill Rd.
Charlotte, VT 05445
802-482-5205
www.iccinet.org
This work is a joint product of the World Bank and the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI) with external contributions.
The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board
of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent.
The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other
information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of
any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
Rights and Permissions
The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank and ICCI encourage dissemination of their knowledge, this
work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given.
Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank
Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org.
All photos courtesy of Shutterstock.com except for page 32, which is courtesy of the Himalayan Stove Project.
Contents
Acknowledgements
Glossary of Keywords and Phrases
Acronyms
Foreword (The World Bank)
Foreword (International Cryosphere Climate Initiative)
Main Messages
1
2
Introduction
State of the Cryosphere: 2013
2.1
Climate Change Impacts in Five Cryosphere Regions
2.1.1 The Himalayas
2.1.2 The Arctic
2.1.3 East African Highlands
2.1.4 Andes and Patagonia
2.1.5 Antarctica
2.2
Pan-Cryosphere Feedbacks: Albedo, Permafrost Melt, and Sea-level Rise
2.2.1 Albedo
2.2.2 Permafrost
2.2.3 Sea-level Rise
3
The Role of Short-lived Pollutants in Cryosphere Protection
3.1
3.2
3.3
4
Early Arctic and Himalayan Work
Slowing Near-term Warming: The UNEP/WMO Assessment
Why Short-lived Pollutants Have Greater Cryosphere Impact
vii
ix
xiii
xvii
xi
1
7
11
11
11
12
14
15
16
17
17
17
18
21
21
21
22
25
25
27
27
27
28
iii
Methods, Measures and Reductions
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
Improvements in Models, Emissions Estimates, and Cryosphere Impacts
Stoves
Diesel
Open Burning
Flaring from Oil and Gas

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