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FLIGHT
INTERNATIONAL
5-11 JANUARY 2016
GREEN LIGHT
CSERIES NEARING
SWISS ROLE AFTER
CERTIFICATION LIFT
THIS WEEK P6
EXTENDED SINGLE
We ask why carriers like
Norwegian would think
about using narrowbodies
on long-haul routes
15
T-X TEASERS
US Air Force jet trainer
contest powers up, as
rivals start manoeuvring
for Talon replacement
16
We predict some of the hottest aerospace
topics for the coming 12 months
WHAT’S ON
APPROACH?
FORECASTS
£3.60
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FLIGHT
INTERNATIONAL
5-11 January 2016
Volume 189
number 5519
news
FLIGHT
INTERNATIONAL
5-11 JANUARY 2016
GREEN LIGHT
CSERIES NEARING
SWISS ROLE AFTER
CERTIFICATION LIFT
THIS WEEK P6
EXTENDED SINGLE
We ask why carriers like
Norwegian would think
about using narrowbodies
on long-haul routes
15
T-X TEASERS
US Air Force jet trainer
contest powers up, as
rivals start manoeuvring
for Talon replacement
16
6
7
8
We predict some of the hottest aerospace
topics for the coming 12 months
WHAT’S ON
APPROACH?
FORECASTS
9
this week
Type certification boost for CSeries
mrJ updates to hit schedule.
Airbus delays A320neo delivery with Lufthansa.
Orders down, but rivals to set output record
Allied fighters put to trilateral task.
Tail-sitting Tern award for northrop
Ottawa to keep fighter options open.
Third AW609 readied for ground tests
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770015 371280
FIN_050116_301.indd 1
22/12/2015 10:43
CoVer image
Will the aerospace sector
enjoy clear skies during
2016? In our annual
forecasts issue, we look at
some of the topics which
could grab headlines
P22
Alamy
0 1
air transport
10
Seletar to be lead site for Trent 7000.
Ge90 inspections widen after Las Vegas incident.
boeing marks Charleston milestone
11
Strong market for secondhand A380s.
Irish Superjet lease deal drives european interest
12
european ban for Iraqi flag carrier.
Commission mauls Lion’s ‘inexperienced’ pilots
13
eC tightens tracking rules.
metal cut for beluga XL rear fuselage.
n219 commuter turboprop set for may first flight
DefenCe
16
rivals up stakes ahead of T-X contest
17
Global Hawk rises for nATO.
Submarine focus alters Swedish nH90 strategy.
Paveway bomb enhancements on target for uK
18
Paris fuels mrTT backlog as order reaches nine.
Israel sends last Skyhawk trainers into retirement
NATO’s coalition-backed Global Hawk takes wing
P17
Cover story
22 The year ahead
Are we on the cusp of a personal
jet age? Is the civil tiltrotor doomed? Do the big
Gulf carriers need yet more aircraft? Will boeing
and northrop Grumman do a takeover tango and
can rolls-royce carry on as we know it? And, is
anybody going to the moon? At
Flight International,
we’ve scanned the horizon for clues
BeHiND THe HeaDliNeS
James Drew
(pictured) paid a
visit to
Langley AFB,
as the
French, uK and uS air forces
staged a
trilateral exercise.
Fighter involvement included
the
Rafale, Typhoon
and
F-22
(P8). And
Stephen Trimble
was with
Northrop Grumman
in
Palmdale,
California (P19)
Business aviation
20
Y-12F type certification after 10-year campaign.
Axon Aviation to market supersonic AS2 in russia.
Phenom 100e delivered to China
21
Acropolis considers engine options.
First Gulfstream added to Qatar executive fleet.
netJets adds first Challenger 650
news foCus
15
neo arrivals push routes to the max
19
northrop to build on Spirit of success
regulars
5
34
35
38
40
43
Comment
Straight & level
letters
Classified
Jobs
working week
NexT week
eNViroNmeNT
We gauge europe’s progress
with the Clean Sky technology
project, and ask how aviation
can cut its carbon emissions
Our predictions for the 12 months ahead
P22.
New aircraft tracking rules from Europe in wake of MH370
P13
Download the Military Simulator
Census online now.
CAE offers training centres, training services, and simulation products for transports and tankers.
www.flightglobal.com/milisim
flightglobal.com
5-11 January 2016
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Flight International
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3
Airbus Helicopters, Zhang Jiansong/reX/Shutterstock
british Airways
northrop Grumman
contents
IMAGE OF
THE WEEK
After a service life spanning
51 years and more than
450,000 flight hours, the
Royal Netherlands Air Force
has retired its final four
Aérospatiale SA316 Alouette
III helicopters. The nation
received its first of 77
examples in 1964, with
duties including VIP transport
for the Dutch Royal family
View more great aviation shots
online and in our weekly tablet
edition:
Anno Gravemaker
flightglobal.com/
flight-international
THE WEEK IN NUMBERS
New value of aircraft fuel levies at the state level in India,
where carriers had previously been required to pay 20-30%
4-5%
Question of the week
Last week, we asked:
How will the 737 Max perform against rival
the A320neo?:
You said:
Flightglobal dashboard
69%
Airbus will
maintain
sales lead
14%
$19
.
3
bn
45
Commercial Spaceflight
Federation
Congress’s FY2016 NASA budget proposal is up by $1.3bn,
for a spending push ahead of US crewed launches in 2017
4,114
TOTAl
vOTES:
Boeing to
win in long
run
17%
Expect a
50:50 split
EasyJet
The number of destinations EasyJet now serves from
Manchester, with the addition of Tivat, in Montenegro
This week, we ask:
Aviation in 2016:
❑
Onwards and upwards
❑
To enter a holding pattern
❑
Will face severe turbulence
Vote at
flightglobal.com
Flightglobal’s premium news and data service delivers breaking air transport stories with
profiles, schedules, and fleet, financial and traffic information
flightglobal.com/dashboard
Download the
the latest Commercial Engines Report
Download
new Commercial Engines Directory
now with enhanced data and in-depth market analysis
now with further enhanced data and in-depth market analysis
Download The Engine Directory.
flightglobal.com/ComEngDirectory
flightglobal.com/commengines
4
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Flight International
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5-11 January 2016
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flightglobal.com
19/07/2012 17:51
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comment
Celebrations on hold?
2015 will go down as another epic year for the aerospace industry, but a pair of late schedule
adjustments suggest that its progress might not be as smooth through the next half-decade
he world’s aircraft manufacturers were not without
reasons to celebrate as 2015 came to a close. Their
key customers in passenger-carrying airlines had
shrugged off slower than expected economic output
and – buoyed by shrewder management and plunging
oil prices – expected to report record-breaking profits
globally, in excess of $30 billion.
But other less encouraging trends should have
restrained any cork-popping as the clock ticked past
midnight on New Year’s Eve.
As strong as the order backlogs may now seem, two
stories that arose over the festive period highlight
cracks in the industry’s ambitious plans for 2016 and,
indeed, the next five years beyond.
Mitsubishi Aircraft announced a new delay for the
90-seat Mitsubishi Regional Jet – until mid-2018 – and
Airbus on 30 December conceded that it would miss its
year-end deadline to deliver the first A320neo.
T
“This fizz can’t run out, right?”
The next five years represent
an era of transition, amid an
historic spike in demand
By themselves, neither event appears too alarming.
The MRJ90 represents the first airliner development
project in Japan in more than half a century. And even
if Airbus misses its deadline by a few weeks, the
A320neo is still broadly on track with the schedule that
it outlined on programme launch in 2010.
But both programmes represent the vanguard of a
five-year transition period. By 2020, Airbus, Boeing,
Bombardier, Comac, Embraer and Irkut will deliver 18
new models, with a sharp rise in overall production.
The steep increase in output over the last five years,
coupled with the delayed introductions of the Boeing
747-8, 787-8/9 and Airbus’s A350-900, have already
curtailed several deliveries, as demand overwhelmed
capacity; especially at interiors suppliers.
The next five years represent an era of transition for
the industry, with clean-sheet and re-engined designs
replacing the generation of airliners fielded between
the late-1980s and late-1990s. It happens to coincide
with an historic spike in demand, forcing manufactur-
ers to increase production of narrowbodies and some
widebody models to levels which seemed absurd only
a few years ago.
Managing this transition will require much attention
to execution. Much of the risk of technologies such as
the 787’s composite fuselage and reliance on electric
power systems is retired. But fielding a new generation
of fuel-efficient engines is the new challenge.
The record of the past five years shows the industry
is more robust than it has ever been, but it will need all
of its skill to manage the balance of the decade.
■
See This Week P7
Talons out for trainer rivals
I
f 2015 was the year of the bomber, the US Air Force’s
requirement for a next-generation fighter trainer will
be one of the hottest games in town in 2016.
With four – maybe five – industry teams poised to
pounce on a request for proposals due out in the fourth
quarter, the multi-billion dollar opportunity to replace
the venerable T-38 Talon will reveal clean-sheet aircraft
from Northrop Grumman and Boeing/Saab, and also
maybe from Lockheed Martin; despite the company’s
ties to the T-50-based Korea Aerospace Industries bid.
The USAF’s massaging of T-X performance needs
has already seen Textron rule out offering its Scorpion,
and question marks hang over the Alenia Aermacchi
M-346 (offered as T-100) and BAE Systems Hawk.
It’s impossible to predict how the competition will
shake out, but the need for 350 advanced trainers to
prepare pilots to fly the Lockheed F-22 and F-35 will
surely throw up surprises.
Northrop enters the fight buoyed by its Long-Range
Strike Bomber win, Lockheed has diplomatic relations
with South Korea to worry about, and Boeing is trying
desperately to continue its McDonnell Douglas legacy.
These three teams could all fly new demonstrators in
2016, setting up an exciting year in aviation.
Alenia and KAI have their work cut out getting their
off-the-shelf T-100 and T-50 proposals across the line,
but the T-X prize is perhaps too great to ignore.
■
See Defence P16
5-11 January 2016
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Flight International
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Stay on top of the latest news
and analysis of the commercial
aviation sector, by going to:
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